Question

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction31%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Environmental science

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

23%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Environmental science

Key takeaways from AP’s examination of South Korea’s split views on North Korea’s nuclear threats

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2024

Harris, Trump & the Race to Oblivion

Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

The U.S. Is Playing Nuclear Chicken in Ukraine

American Conservative•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

23%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%