Question
What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
Total Forecasters21
Community Prediction
282 kt
(64.1 kt - 902 kt)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1 kt | 2.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 64.08 kt | — |
| median | 281.9 kt | — |
| upper 75% | 902.4 kt | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50k kt | 1.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021