Question
How many hours a week will coders report using GPT-X Codex type tools in Robin Hanson's 2026 Twitter poll?
Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction
4.23
(1.45 - 10.6)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.01 | 0.7% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1.455 | — |
| median | 4.233 | — |
| upper 75% | 10.62 | — |
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closed:Mar 14, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
91.5
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
08 Apr 2027
What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?
34.2
Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2021
Closed:Mar 14, 2023
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2021
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
91.5
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
08 Apr 2027
What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?
34.2