Question

What will be the best proven upper bound on the infimum of S in 2120? [old, see new version in comments]

Resolved:Ambiguous
Total Forecasters3
Community Prediction
<0.5
(<0.5 - 0.917)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

Lower boundcommunityMy Prediction
<0.558.9%
Quartiles
lower 25%<0.5
median<0.5
upper 75%0.9172
Upper bound
>122.8%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Opened:Sep 16, 2021
Closes:Jan 2, 2030
Resolves:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 18, 2021