Question
When will there cease to be Maronite President of Lebanon, a Sunni Prime Minister of Lebanon, or a Shia Speaker of Parliament of Lebanon?
Resolved:28 Nov 2022 10:00Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction
Oct 2030
(21 Mar 2027 - Jan 2037)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 Mar 2027 | — |
| median | Oct 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | Jan 2037 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2049 | 7.4% | — |
What was the final result?28 Nov 2022 10:00
Community Baseline Score
-1.6
Community Peer Score
-0.6
Authors:
Opened:Oct 3, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Resolves:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 5, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Oct 3, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Resolves:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 5, 2021