Question

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

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Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction2121-01-15

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2121-01-15 00:00

76.8%

Authors:

stanulamstan

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Integer factorization

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2040-11-23

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

When will P = NP be settled?

2076-08-19

Comments

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Integer factorization

Will the toughest problem in maths ever be solved?

Spectator (UK)•Sep 12, 2024

So you want to build a quantum computer?

Defense One•Sep 13, 2024

Cause and effect may not actually be muddled in the quantum realm

New Scientist•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2040-11-23

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

When will P = NP be settled?

2076-08-19