Question

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

8
7
Total Forecasters54
Community Prediction
25%
(17% - 35.3%)

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50%
community: 25%
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Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United States
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Russia