Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

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Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction

Jun 2032

(18 Oct 2027 - Aug 2039)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	18 Oct 2027	Jun 2032	Aug 2039
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	18 Oct 2027	—
median	Jun 2032	—
upper 75%	Aug 2039	—

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 26, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

11%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?