Question

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction

Jul 2073

(Jul 2056 - 2100)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2119
community	Jul 2056	Jul 2073	2100	18.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jul 2056	—
median	Jul 2073	—
upper 75%	2100	—
Upper bound
>2119	18.7%	—

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Authors:

uganda

Opened:

May 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 23, 2119

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 23, 2119

Spot Scoring Time:

May 24, 2021

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.16

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

3266

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

90%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

May 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 23, 2119

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 23, 2119

Spot Scoring Time:

May 24, 2021

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.16

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

3266

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

90%