Question

What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?

Resolved:Ambiguous

11 comments11

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction

516k

(456k - 575k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1M
community	456.3k	515.8k	575.2k	0.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	456.3k	—
median	515.8k	—
upper 75%	575.2k	—
Upper bound
>1M	0.8%	—

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Jan 6, 2021

Closes:

Jan 16, 2021

Resolves:

May 22, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 8, 2021

2021 Leaderboard

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

Public health

COVID-19

Pfizer

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Food and Drug Administration

National Center for Health Statistics

Johns Hopkins University

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