Question

How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction58.3

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

0.3%

34.5

58.34

101.9

2.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Business

Food and Drug Administration

Eroom's law

Methodology

Pharmacology

Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?

37%

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

225

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Business

Food and Drug Administration

Eroom's law

Methodology

Pharmacology

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Antimicrobial Resistance Could Kill Over 39 Million By 2050 Without Big Changes

Forbes•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?

37%

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

225

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?

80%