Question

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

304 comments304

Total Forecasters1194

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 13.7%

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Health & Pandemics

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

30%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2049-12-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Health & Pandemics

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

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New York Post•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

30%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2049-12-27