Question

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

153 comments153

Total Forecasters394

Community Prediction54%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 54%

median 54.0%mean 53.2%

Authors:

rcloud

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Verity

Geopolitics

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Iran

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

70%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

rcloud

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Verity

Geopolitics

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Iran

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Iran is set to go nuclear, thanks to Biden — and the mullahs want Harris to win

New York Post•Sep 13, 2024

Iran-Russia nuclear deal: World teeters on the brink of WWIII as West fears Moscow has given Tehran nuclear bomb secrets in swap for missiles to hit Ukraine

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2024

Iran’s president insists Tehran wants to negotiate over its nuclear program

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

70%

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

72%