Question
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1663
Community Prediction
Apr 2033
(21 May 2028 - Jul 2045)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 May 2028 | — |
| median | Apr 2033 | — |
| upper 75% | Jul 2045 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 2.0% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020