Question

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction5.73

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

4.937

5.729

6.529

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Psychology

Public health

80,000 Hours

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

35%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Psychology

Public health

80,000 Hours

What Should Be AI's Top Focus? 5 Industry Leaders Weigh in

Time•Sep 12, 2024

Future of work: Britain requires 250,000 extra tradespeople by 2028 - top in-demand jobs revealed

Daily Mail•Sep 12, 2024

This Scientist Doesn’t Think Hope Will Beat Climate Change

Mother Jones•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

35%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%