What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?
Resolved:270Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <100 | 4.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 164.1 | — |
| median | 195.8 | — |
| upper 75% | 231 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >400 | 1.1% | — |
What was the final result?270
According to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, Elon Musk is currently worth $187 billion and is the second richest person behind Jeff Bezos.
Forbes also publishes a billionaire list, where Elon comes in second but with a lower net worth of $177.6 billion. According to his profile, Elon owns 21% of Tesla but has pledged more than half his stake as collateral for loans. SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, is now valued at $74 billion after its latest funding round in February 2021. He has 54% ownership of SpaceX, 80% of Boring Company, and 90% of Neuralink.
This question asks what Elon Musk's total net worth will be according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index on December 31st, 2021 at 11:59 PM UTC.
This question is denominated in billions of US dollars.
[fine-print]If Bloomberg stops publishing the index, this question will resolve ambiguously.[/fine-print]
Comments
The system seems to be saying I only break even when I have a result about 10% below my median and above to my top range. I was expecting points from the 25-75% confidence level. This is not at all what I expected. Why tell me what my 25% level is when I lose points well above that ? I created the question and I totally nailed the prediction of how much Elon would be worth. The range slider point calculation is misleading based on the UI when making the prediction
@nextbigfuture the offical breakdown of how scoring works is here. without knowing the specific details of the community at the times you're referring to, and your exact prediction, the rule of thumb is this: look at the pdf view of the graph: at the resolution value (270), you'll see the prediction value is 0.69. if your prediction at 270 is less than 0.69, you'll earn less points than the community, and if greater, you'll earn more.
I don’t understand the point history for this question. The system is saying I will lose points on this when I predicted. Median 321b with 25% at $239b and 75% at 400b. So I thought my range totally covered the 270b result. Far better than the community with upper 75% at $229b. $270b is at my 35%. Metaculus predicted 163b-229b. I have 239b to 400b. 270b is well within my range. I think I should be totally winning points.
It would be nice for the UI to display that info where it tells us when it opened. But then again, I think both dates should be displayed right above the latest comments.
The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.
Rank |Name| Total net worth
1 Elon Musk $270B
2 Jeff Bezos $192B
3 Bernard Arnault $178B
4 Bill Gates $138B
$289 Billion today. $1030 per share for Tesla. SpaceX up to $100B could be go $120-130 by yearend. Tesla maybe going to $1200-1500 by yearend. EV Tax credits could get passed Nov or Dec. $70B from spaceX (54%) + Tesla $280B-355B. $350B-$425B
citizen
·Musk is around $190-210B, depending upon your source. Bezos is about 10% lower. The Arnault family has less than 1% more than Musk.