Question

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction

11.4

(0.927 - >33)

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CDF

	<0.033	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>33
community	7.0%	0.927	11.43	>33	38.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.033	7.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.927	—
median	11.43	—
upper 75%	>33	—
Upper bound
>33	38.4%	—

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Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 13, 2020

Closes:

Dec 22, 2133

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2020

Technology

Biology

Chemistry

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

Brain Preservation Foundation

What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

1.42

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

0.756

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?