Question

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction

1.44M B

(222k B - 11.4M B)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1B B
community	222.3k B	1.436M B	11.43M B	5.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	222.3k B	—
median	1.436M B	—
upper 75%	11.43M B	—
Upper bound
>1B B	5.8%	—

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 4, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 6, 2020

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

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28%

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Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

1.5×10²⁹