Question

By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?

Resolved:No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction

54%

(45% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 54%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-35.5

Community Peer Score

19.6

Authors:

Adrian

Opened:

Dec 20, 2015

Closes:

May 15, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 14, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 22, 2015

Playing God Series

Environment & Climate

Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?

22%

Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?

60%

When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?

Aug 2036