Question

What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction2153-10-28

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2299-12-28

...

2073-11-12 00:15

2153-10-28 09:42

2299-12-28 00:00

27.1%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Our World in Data

World Health Organization

Marquis de Condorcet

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

2066-02-08

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

73.2

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Our World in Data

World Health Organization

Marquis de Condorcet

Nearly 40 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant superbug infections by 2050, new study estimates

CNN•Sep 17, 2024

39 Million May Die of Drug-Resistant Bugs by 2050: 'Now Is the Time to Act'

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2024

Antibiotic resistance forecast to kill 39 million people by 2050

New Scientist•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch