Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Question
Question
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
44
35 comments
35
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
229
Community Prediction
20.8
Make a Prediction
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Sign Up to Predict
My Prediction
community
<3.3e-2
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>360
...
...
...
...
...
4.4%
4.37
20.83
130.7
16.7%
Background Info
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Ethics
Paul Christiano
Artificial intelligence
Computer science
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
AGI
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
Comments
recent
? comments
Log in
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Ethics
Paul Christiano
Artificial intelligence
Computer science
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
AGI
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery
Time
•
Sep 12, 2024
'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
Business Insider
•
Sep 13, 2024
'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
Business Insider
•
Sep 13, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery
Time
•
Sep 12, 2024
'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
Business Insider
•
Sep 13, 2024
'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
Business Insider
•
Sep 13, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
48
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2028-04-13
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
Show More Questions
Similar Questions
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
48
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2028-04-13
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
Show More Questions