Question
When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?
Total Forecasters48
Community Prediction
10 Sep 2028
(10 Feb 2026 - Aug 2033)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <29 Dec 2020 | 2.6% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 10 Feb 2026 | — |
| median | 10 Sep 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | Aug 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2050 | 8.2% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:May 26, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:May 28, 2020
Authors:
Opened:May 26, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:May 28, 2020