Question
When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?
Total Forecasters90
Community Prediction
31 Aug 2025
(31 Jul 2024 - 29 Sep 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 31 Jul 2024 | — |
| median | 31 Aug 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 29 Sep 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 4.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 27, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 29, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Mar 27, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 29, 2020