Question

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

218

147 comments147

Total Forecasters1386

Community Prediction98%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 97.5%

median 97.5%mean 83.2%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Ethics

Methodology

Artificial intelligence

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? → US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? → Date 1M-population country adopts UBI

When will AI arrive?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Ethics

Methodology

Artificial intelligence

The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery

Time•Sep 12, 2024

'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America

Business Insider•Sep 13, 2024

'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America

Business Insider•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch