Question

When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?

Total Forecasters9
Community Prediction
Sep 2033
(30 Mar 2030 - Aug 2038)

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CDF

QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%30 Mar 2030
medianSep 2033
upper 75%Aug 2038
Upper bound
>Jan 20500.8%
Opened:May 19, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2050