Question
When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?
Total Forecasters9
Community Prediction
Sep 2033
(30 Mar 2030 - Aug 2038)
Make a Prediction
CDF
Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
lower 25% | 30 Mar 2030 | — |
median | Sep 2033 | — |
upper 75% | Aug 2038 | — |
Upper bound | ||
>Jan 2050 | 0.8% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 19, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2050
Authors:
Opened:May 19, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2050