Question

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction

Jan 2040

(May 2032 - Nov 2056)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	May 2032	Jan 2040	Nov 2056	8.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	May 2032	—
median	Jan 2040	—
upper 75%	Nov 2056	—
Upper bound
>2100	8.3%	—

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Authors:

NoUsernameSelected

Opened:

Feb 20, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 22, 2020

RSA Factoring Challenge

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Jan 2036

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Jul 2040

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

>2121

Authors:

NoUsernameSelected

Opened:

Feb 20, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 22, 2020

RSA Factoring Challenge

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Jan 2036

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Jul 2040

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

>2121