Question

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters571

Community Prediction3%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

median 3.0%mean 6.7%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center

Wuhan Institute of Virology

Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market

Jianghan District

Medicine

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

23%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center

Wuhan Institute of Virology

Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market

Jianghan District

Medicine

New analysis of samples from Wuhan animal market supports its role as a central site of early spread of Covid-19

CNN•Sep 19, 2024

Scientists Shed Light on Wildlife Species at Origin of COVID-19 in Wuhan

Newsweek•Sep 19, 2024

New research points to raccoon dogs in Wuhan market as pandemic trigger. It's controversial

NPR Online News•Sep 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

23%