Question

How many journalists in the US will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters319

Community Prediction

31.9 journalists

(13.5 journalists - 62.1 journalists)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>200
community	13.46	31.92	62.08	4.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	13.46	—
median	31.92	—
upper 75%	62.08	—
Upper bound
>200	4.6%	—

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Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2027

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

75%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

25%

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

46%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2027

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

75%

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

25%

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

46%