Question

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters325

Community Prediction

15%

(9% - 23%)

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50%

community: 15%

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 20, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 20, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2029

POTUS Predictions

Full-Term Phase

Geopolitics

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

55%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

14%

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 20, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 20, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 20, 2029

POTUS Predictions

Full-Term Phase

Geopolitics

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

55%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

14%

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%