Question

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

904

453 comments453

Total Forecasters4172

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 7.2%

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

SpaceX reusable launch system

Elon Musk

SpaceX Mars transportation infrastructure

Colonization of Mars

SpaceX

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

22%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

SpaceX reusable launch system

Elon Musk

SpaceX Mars transportation infrastructure

Colonization of Mars

SpaceX

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

22%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

25%