Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Question
Question
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
26
38 comments
38
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
165
Community Prediction
57%
Make a Prediction
50%
community: 57%
Sign Up to Predict
Background Info
Histogram
median
57.0%
mean
51.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Economy & Business
Artificial intelligence
World Bank
Computer science
Robin Hanson
Gross world product
Submit Tags Feedback
Comments
recent
? comments
Log in
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Economy & Business
Artificial intelligence
World Bank
Computer science
Robin Hanson
Gross world product
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery
Time
•
Sep 12, 2024
'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
Business Insider
•
Sep 13, 2024
AI vs. the Imperfect Human Brain
Psychology Today
•
Sep 13, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
The Long Road to Genuine AI Mastery
Time
•
Sep 12, 2024
'We're only in 1996': Why the AI boom is still in its earliest days, according to Bank of America
Business Insider
•
Sep 13, 2024
AI vs. the Imperfect Human Brain
Psychology Today
•
Sep 13, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
34%
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
2051-03-31
Show More Questions
Similar Questions
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
34%
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
2051-03-31
Show More Questions