Question

Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?

Resolved :No

67 comments67

Total Forecasters265

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.6

Community Peer Score

11.2

median 1.0%mean 3.5%

Authors:

CredibleHulk

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

22%

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

CredibleHulk

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Iran is set to go nuclear, thanks to Biden — and the mullahs want Harris to win

New York Post•Sep 13, 2024

Iranian President Says Direct Talks With US Are Possible If US Shows It’s Not Hostile

AntiWar•Sep 17, 2024

Can Iran restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding an all-out war?

Al Jazeera•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

22%