Question

Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on March 31, 2025?

Resolved:Yes

85 comments85

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

53%

(40% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 53%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

43.3

Community Peer Score

-7.9

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 28, 2025

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 28, 2025

Question Weight:50%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

15%

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

45%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 28, 2025

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 28, 2025

Question Weight:50%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

15%

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

45%