Question

Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on February 28, 2025?

Resolved:No

75 comments75

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction

54%

(50% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 54%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-47.1

Community Peer Score

21.4

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 27, 2025

Closes:

Jan 27, 2025

Resolves:

Feb 28, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 27, 2025

Question Weight:50%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

15%

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

45%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 27, 2025

Closes:

Jan 27, 2025

Resolves:

Feb 28, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 27, 2025

Question Weight:50%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

15%

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

45%