Question

Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of April 2025?

Resolved:Yes

14 comments14

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

95%

(95% - 96%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

86.0

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 19, 2025

Closes:

Jan 22, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 22, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?

85%

Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?

20%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?

82%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 19, 2025

Closes:

Jan 22, 2025

Resolves:

Apr 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 22, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?

85%

Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?

20%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?

82%