Question

[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?

Resolved :Yes

14 comments14

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

67.5

Community Peer Score

1.5

median 80.0%mean 77.1%

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2019–20 Hong Kong protests

Google Search

Google Trends

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

29%

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

108

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2019–20 Hong Kong protests

Google Search

Google Trends

China Market Update: Alibaba, Tencent, & Meituan Are Buying Their Stock. Are You?

Forbes•Sep 12, 2024

China Market Update: $2.1 Billion Net Flows To Alibaba In First Week Of Connect, Week In Review

Forbes•Sep 13, 2024

China Market Update: Hong Kong Grinds Higher, China Releases August Economic Data

Forbes•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

29%

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

108