Question

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction10.9B

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upper 75%

>100B

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3.259B

10.86B

29.86B

12.1%

Authors:

pranomostro

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Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?

8.79B

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

61%

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.18B

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Authors:

pranomostro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Population: As US Births Fall, Do We Need More Kids? Demographer Weighs In

Newsweek•Sep 12, 2024

The weird sci-fi predictions that all came true! Now, the same 'clairvoyant' author forecasts dystopian IVF baby factories - and humans who re-generate their own amputated limbs...

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

Antibiotic resistance forecast to kill 39 million people by 2050

New Scientist•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?

8.79B

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

61%

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.18B