Question

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction

165 cases

(103 cases - 333 cases)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>5000
community	102.9	165	333.2	6.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	102.9	—
median	165	—
upper 75%	333.2	—
Upper bound
>5000	6.7%	—

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Oct 22, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 10, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 24, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

3.6%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

10%

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.06