Question
When will the first man celebrate his 120th birthday?
Total Forecasters9
Community Prediction
Oct 2044
(Jun 2040 - May 2050)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Jun 2040 | — |
| median | Oct 2044 | — |
| upper 75% | May 2050 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2060 | 9.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2060
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2061
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Oct 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2060
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2061
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2024