Question

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction1.03

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1e-1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

7.5%

4.316e-1

1.028

2.428

1.8%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine pedroacosta

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Health & Pandemics

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

21%

What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

2.22

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine pedroacosta

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

One dose of a smallpox vaccine still gives good protection for mpox

New Scientist•Sep 12, 2024

Mpox deaths rise by 107 in a week as Africa CDC calls the toll unacceptable

Associated Press•Sep 13, 2024

CDC says mpox vaccine boosters aren’t needed in the US as questions emerge around waning immunity

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

21%

What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

2.22