Question

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

20%

(13% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 14, 2024

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

75%

Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?

58.5%