Question
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
Total Forecasters127
Community Prediction
1.7×10¹⁷ FLOPS
(405T FLOPS - 5.8×10¹⁹ FLOPS)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1T | 7.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 405.4T | — |
| median | 1.7×10¹⁷ | — |
| upper 75% | 5.8×10¹⁹ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10²⁶ | 4.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2019