First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

conditional

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

2

Make a Prediction

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?	First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

PDF

CDF

The question "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?" resolves.

	<Dec 2019	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	1.2%	Nov 2033	Feb 2046	Jul 2052	0.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<Dec 2019	1.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Nov 2033	—
median	Feb 2046	—
upper 75%	Jul 2052	—
Upper bound
>2100	0.9%	—

PDF

CDF

The question "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?" resolves.

	<Dec 2019	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2100
community	1.2%	Nov 2033	Feb 2046	Jul 2052	0.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<Dec 2019	1.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Nov 2033	—
median	Feb 2046	—
upper 75%	Jul 2052	—
Upper bound
>2100	0.9%	—

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 26, 2018

Closed:

Mar 15, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2100

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 26, 2018

Closed:

Mar 15, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2100

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business