Question

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?

74 comments74

Total Forecasters615

Community Prediction0%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

median 0.1%mean 1.1%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

Scotland

2014 Scottish independence referendum

United Nations

European Union

United Kingdom

2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

53%

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

2033-01-06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

Scotland

2014 Scottish independence referendum

United Nations

European Union

United Kingdom

2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

‘Our vote means next to nothing’: optimism of young Scottish yes supporters fades 10 years on

Guardian•Sep 17, 2024

Ten years after the no vote, can Scotland engineer a case for independence?

Guardian•Sep 18, 2024

What was Labour’s role in stopping Scottish independence?

Spectator (UK)•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

53%

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

2033-01-06