Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Question
Question
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
6
44 comments
44
1d
1w
2m
all
Total Forecasters
36
Community Prediction
2.22
Make a Prediction
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Sign Up to Predict
My Prediction
community
<5e-2
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>75
...
...
...
...
...
5.5%
7.881e-1
2.216
6.476
0.8%
Background Info
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Health & Pandemics
Infectious disease
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1
United States
Medicine
Public health
Virology
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology
Submit Tags Feedback
Comments
recent
? comments
Log in
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Health & Pandemics
Infectious disease
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1
United States
Medicine
Public health
Virology
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology
Submit Tags Feedback
Similar Questions
How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
6%
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
15%
Show More Questions
Similar Questions
How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
6%
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
15%
Show More Questions
News Match
The US is entering a riskier season for spread of H5N1 bird flu. Here’s why experts are worried
CNN
•
Sep 13, 2024
Bird flu case still stumping officials. How did Missouri person get infected?
USA Today
•
Sep 13, 2024
Missouri bird flu case believed to be a ‘one-off’ and public risk remains low, officials say
PBS NewsHour
•
Sep 13, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
News Match
The US is entering a riskier season for spread of H5N1 bird flu. Here’s why experts are worried
CNN
•
Sep 13, 2024
Bird flu case still stumping officials. How did Missouri person get infected?
USA Today
•
Sep 13, 2024
Missouri bird flu case believed to be a ‘one-off’ and public risk remains low, officials say
PBS NewsHour
•
Sep 13, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch