conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
>500,000 Palestinians displaced? | Israel-Gaza Conflict Death Toll? (Palestinian civilians) |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
The question "How many civilian deaths will there be in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024? (Palestinian civilians)" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?" resolves.
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1000 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 22.46k | — |
| median | 47.19k | — |
| upper 75% | >50k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50k | 47.1% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 24, 2023
Closed:Jun 30, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Authors:
Opened:Nov 24, 2023
Closed:Jun 30, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026