Question

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

1
11
Total Forecasters26
Community Prediction
37.1%
(25% - 68%)

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50%
community: 37.1%
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Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2024
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
No first use