Question

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction

55%

(35% - 70%)

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50%

community: 55%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

30%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

30%