Question

Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?

Resolved :Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction50%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-44.6

Community Peer Score

20.0

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Jordan

United States

Joe Biden

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Jordan

United States

Joe Biden

US announces steps to punish Iran for missile sales to Russia

Independent•Sep 13, 2024

Iraq Says – During Iran President’s Visit – It Will Mostly End U.S. Military Presence

Breitbart•Sep 13, 2024

Can Iran restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding an all-out war?

Al Jazeera•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

22%