Question

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction94%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 94%

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Information technology

United States

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

2024-07-03

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

83%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Information technology

United States

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Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

2024-07-03

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

83%